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Tennis remains one of the most exciting sports to bet on, with its four major Grand Slam events – the Australian Open, the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open – offering thrilling action and a wide range of betting opportunities. However, to be successful, it’s important to develop a solid strategy, focusing on key factors like player performance, tournament types, and betting markets.
In this guide, we’ll walk through the most popular tennis betting strategies for 2024, and help you understand how to use player statistics, tournament details, and surfaces to your advantage when placing your bets.
How Does Tennis Betting Work?
Tennis betting can seem straightforward at first, but several factors must be considered before you place a bet. The sport is played on three distinct surfaces – clay, grass, and hard courts – each of which significantly affects how players perform. For instance, some players excel on certain surfaces but struggle on others. A prime example is Pete Sampras, who was dominant on grass and hard courts, but found less success on clay.
Additionally, match formats vary between best-of-three or best-of-five sets, and with fast-paced points, in-play betting offers exciting opportunities to place wagers during the match. So, how do you get started with tennis betting?
1. Choose Your Tournament:
While the Grand Slams offer the most comprehensive coverage, ATP Masters 1000 events and end-of-season ATP Finals also provide ample betting opportunities. Focusing on these top-tier events ensures you’ll have access to detailed statistics and a wider variety of betting markets.
2. Pick Your Match:
Based on your strategy, choose whether to back favorites aggressively or place riskier bets on underdogs. Each match offers unique insights based on player form, surface preferences, and head-to-head records.
3. Select Your Bet Type:
The most common bet type in tennis is the moneyline, where you wager
Five Effective Tennis Betting Strategies
1. Analyze Player Matchup Statistics:
One of the most reliable tennis betting strategies involves closely examining player performance stats. This includes reviewing how players perform on specific surfaces, as well as their head-to-head records. For example, if Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Stefanos Tsitsipas in all six of their past meetings, betting on Alcaraz might be a sensible choice.
Tip for Success:
Look at matches from a historical perspective. Results from Grand Slam or Masters 1000 events are often the most telling, as they feature the highest level of competition.
2. Target Underdogs in Lower-Level Tournaments:
Not all ATP events are created equal. Smaller tournaments like ATP 250 and Challenger Tour events often feature lower-ranked players who can offer significant value bets. Underdogs in these events often have higher odds, making them an attractive option for bettors.
Tip for Success:
Focus on players who are returning from injury or those who have recently seen a surge in form. These competitors often present great value bets in lower-level events.
3. Consider Playing Surface Preferences:
Certain players excel on particular surfaces, and this should be a key factor when placing bets. Rafael Nadal, for example, has a remarkable 96.6% win rate at the French Open, a testament to his clay court dominance. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz shine on hard and grass courts, respectively.
Tip for Success:
Always factor in a player’s historical performance on different surfaces when making your selections. This will help you better assess their chances in specific tournaments.
4. Look Out for Rising Stars:
One of the most profitable strategies in tennis betting is identifying young players as they rise through the ranks. These up-and-coming stars often face seasoned but fading players, and can sometimes provide excellent value bets when they face older, less consistent competitors.
Tip for Success:
Keep an eye on Challenger tournaments and the Next Gen ATP Finals, where many future stars make their breakthrough. These players can offer high returns, especially when facing older, out-of-form players in larger tournaments.
5. Use the Dutching Betting Strategy:
In Grand Slam events, the tournament draw often separates the top seeds, giving you an opportunity to employ a strategy known as ‘dutching.’ This involves betting on multiple players from different sections of the draw, increasing your chances of securing a profit.
Tip for Success:
If you bet on two players from different halves of the draw, you’re guaranteed to make a profit if either player wins the tournament. This strategy is great for managing risk while optimizing your betting returns.
Best Tennis Bets You Can Place
Tennis offers a variety of betting options, each with its own potential for profit. The most popular bet types include:
Tournament Winner:
Betting on the winner of a major tournament offers potentially high returns, especially when betting on players with strong track records at specific events.
Match Winner:
This is the simplest and most common bet, where you pick the winner of a match, without worrying about the number of games or sets.
Total Games:
This bet focuses on the total number of games played in a match, where you wager on whether the number will be over or under a specific threshold.
Set Betting:
Set betting allows you to wager on the outcome of individual sets within a match. This is an advanced bet, but it can offer great returns if you can predict the set outcomes accurately.
In-Play Markets:
Tennis is well-suited for live betting. You can place bets on events like the next point, next game, or set outcomes during the match. These fast-paced markets offer thrilling opportunities for bettors.
Pros and Cons of Tennis Betting
Pros:
- A wide variety of pre-match and live betting options.
- Moneyline bets offer higher chances of success, as there’s no draw outcome.
- Access to detailed player stats, which help in making informed betting decisions.
- Extensive coverage of top-tier events and detailed statistics to help refine your betting strategy.
Cons:
- Injuries can disrupt a match or even cause a player to retire, negatively impacting your bet.
- Betting on lower-level events can be more unpredictable due to less coverage and more irregular play.
Tennis Live Betting Strategy: Fast Markets
Tennis live betting offers a dynamic and fast-paced way to wager. As points are contested quickly, you can bet on a variety of in-play markets like the winner of the next point, the total number of games, and even the winner of the next game or set. These markets add excitement and depth to your betting strategy, allowing you to capitalize on changing match dynamics.
By using these strategies and understanding key factors like surface preferences, player statistics, and betting types, you can improve your chances of success in tennis betting. Whether you’re wagering on a major Grand Slam or a smaller ATP event, these tips will give you a competitive edge as you navigate the exciting world of tennis betting in 2024.
